Thursday, March 15, 2012
By Stephen Stirling/The Star-Ledger.
Living along New Jersey’s 127 miles of coastline has always posed something of a risk.
Terms like coastal flooding, erosion and nor’easter have long been a part of the vocabulary of residents on the Shore.
But new research predicts rising sea levels due to global warming will more than triple the likelihood of devastating coastal flooding by the year 2030, putting more than 230,000 beach and bay-side residents in the flood zone.
Put simply, the once in a lifetime coastal storm may soon come around once in a generation.
"Sea level rise is not some distant problem that we can just let our children deal with. The risks are imminent and serious," said Ben Strauss, lead author of "Surging Seas" a new report by the Princeton-based Climate Central, a foundation-funded non-profit organization. "Just a small amount of sea level rise, including what we may well see within the next 20 years, can turn yesterday’s manageable flood into tomorrow’s potential disaster."
The report, published yesterday, comprises one of the most comprehensive studies on sea level rise in decades. It states that nationally, more than 6 million people live in areas less than five feet below the high-tide line and will become far more vulnerable to the threat of coastal flooding with sea levels predicted to rise several inches in the coming decades.
In Toms River, where, according to the report, more than half the population is at risk for increasingly severe coastal flooding, Mayor Thomas Kelaher knows the risks well. He said at times, even a stiff wind off the ocean can back up storm drains and flood the streets.
"It shows you how vulnerable you can be here," Kelaher said. "Very frankly, I’m not too sure what the hell we can do (on a local level). We respond when we have to. We keep our residents informed. We have a strong evacuation plan. But short of having a magic wand, I don’t know how you can solve the risk that we have."
In New Jersey, the report said, 236,000 people are at an approximately 30 percent risk of a 100-year flood affecting them by the year 2030, and sea levels could rise 15 inches by 2050. Without the effects of global warming, which scientists say is melting the polar ice caps and expanding the volume of water in the oceans, that risk drops to 8 percent.
"New Jersey is going to be a battleground well into the future and long after other areas are given up on," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. "And we’re not just talking about the major storm, the storm of 1962. What we’re talking about here is that a run of a mill storm could become much more of a problem."
Yesterday’s report also posits that heat-trapping pollutants, like greenhouse gases, are a driving force in the warming of the planet and the rising of the oceans.
"This is happening. This is not some hypothetical issue. It’s a question of how fast it’s going to accelerate," said Richard Wiles, of Climate Central. "Coastal states really need to take the lead here in advocating for some national policy action on climate change."
Still, the study doesn’t come without caveats.
While most critics have now conceded that global warming is taking place, there is still some debate about just how rapidly sea levels will rise and how much humans are contributing to the warming of the Earth. Additionally, the variability of individual weather events, like nor’easters and hurricanes, is immense, and the recently popular theory that global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of storms remains controversial.
"Sea level rise is not just a simple matter of putting down a stake and marking the change, there are a tremendous amount of variables that go into it," said Ken Green, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. "I think it’s a very mixed picture. (Climate Central) is trying to just make a very clean, cartoon-like relationship between greenhouse gasses and risks of sea level rise."
While the state doesn’t have a specific plan to combat climate change’s effects on the shoreline, the Department of Environmental Protection works closely with the Army Corps of Engineers, county and municipal governments to replenish and maintain beaches, which are under an unrelenting strain from the elements.
"We’re constantly at battle with Mother Nature," said Lawrence Hajna, a spokesman with DEP. "But it’s a fight you have to wage because of the high stakes. There’s billions of dollars of property and infrastructure in these areas."
Here in New Jersey, Robinson said the problem isn’t preparing for a disaster.
"Towns, they don’t have their heads in the sand. They’re aware of this," he said. "The difference of opinions comes when it’s a matter of what to do about it."
But while the sciences, like climatology, preach patience and observation, watching and waiting may do more harm than good.
"Often times with a changing climate, it’s something that happens in little fits and starts and can kind of sneak up on you," Robinson said. "That can be dangerous. Whenever you get a big storm, what’s the first reaction? It’s, ‘Let’s rebuild, rebuild stronger.’ Is that the right answer? I’m not going to pass judgment. It’s a very, very difficult, contentious subject and one that will be with us for a long while."